Question 1
26 marks
A sweets game: paths, recurrences and a gambler's ruin formula
- Statistics and probability
- Number and algebra
(a)(i)
1 mark
The only way to be back on one sweet at the start of round 3 is to win round 1 (up to two) and then lose round 2 (back to one). Multiply along that branch.
Mentor tip
Losing round 1 ends the game, so there is no second route to count. Say so in a few words so the product is clearly complete.
(a)(ii)
2 marks
- To reach three sweets at the start of round 5 you need three wins and one loss in rounds 1 to 4.
- The game must not stop early, so you cannot hit or before round 5. The only valid order is win, lose, win, win: that is followed by two more wins.
Mentor tip
Do not multiply by a binomial coefficient here. Orders such as win, win, win, lose finish the game at three sweets too early, so they do not count.
(b)
2 marks
From one sweet, the only way to be on one sweet two rounds later is to win and then lose (losing first ends the game).
Mentor tip
This is the same branch as in (a)(i). The game has no memory, so what happened in rounds 1 to 4 does not matter.
(c)
1 mark
Put into the recurrence with and .
(d)
2 marks
Substitute the given and into your answer to (c).
Another way. Use the recurrence at with : , which also gives .
Mentor tip
A quick check: the three values should increase with , since more sweets means a better chance of winning. fits.
(e)
2 marks
- Since , replace the left-hand by .
- Collect the terms on one side and the terms on the other, then factorise and divide by .
Mentor tip
The trick of writing as is worth remembering: it turns a three-term recurrence into a simple ratio between consecutive differences.
(f)(i)
1 mark
Use the result of (e) with , and remember .
(f)(ii)
2 marks
- Use (e) again, this time with .
- Replace with your answer to (f)(i).
Mentor tip
Write both lines. On a show-that, the link back to (f)(i) is the whole point.
(f)(iii)
1 mark
Each step up in multiplies the difference by another , so the differences form a geometric pattern.
Mentor tip
Check the power with : it should give , matching (f)(i).
(g)(i)
4 marks
- Add the differences from up to . Everything in the middle cancels, leaving .
- Now add the same differences using (f)(iii): this gives times the powers of from the first up to the th.
- Set the two totals equal, move across and factorise.
Mentor tip
Show the telescoping clearly by writing at least the first two and the last bracket. That makes the cancellation obvious to the reader.
(g)(ii)
4 marks
- The bracket from (g)(i) is a geometric series with first term , ratio and terms. Sum it with the formula (valid since ).
- Substitute the given expression for . The factor cancels.
Mentor tip
Sanity check the result: gives and gives , exactly as the game demands.
(h)
4 marks
- She starts with sweets and the total in the game is . The ratio is .
- Use the formula from (g)(ii) and require it to be at least .
- Solve with a GDC table or graph, then round up to the next whole number.
Mentor tip
Since counts sweets it must be a whole number, so round up, not to the nearest. Showing the table values either side of makes the answer convincing.

