Question 1
19 marks
Medical tests: sampling, a tree diagram, conditional probability and a Venn diagram
- Statistics and probability
(a)
1 mark
The centre tests every patient who comes on one day, whoever they are. This is convenience sampling.
(b)
4 marks
Complete the tree. Of all people, 5% have the disease, so 95% don't. Of those with the disease, 99% test positive, so 1% test negative. Of those without it, 2% test positive and 98% test negative.
(c)
8 marks
(i) No disease and positive:
(ii) Negative (from either branch):
(iii) Disease given negative:
(d)
1 mark
The patients on that day are not a random sample of the population, so the proportion who have the disease may differ from 5%. Even with a random sample the observed numbers would vary around the predicted ones.
(e)
3 marks
Draw a rectangle with three overlapping circles M, N and D. In the centre (all three) write 9. Then M and D only: 18. M and N only: 11. D only: 2. Using the totals: N and D only is , M only is , and N only is .
(f)
2 marks
Add every region of the diagram.

