Question 1
28 marks
Modelling a computer virus: regression, exponential growth and a logistic model
- Calculus
(a)(i)
2 marks
Use linear regression of on with the seven data points.
(a)(ii)
1 mark
Read the correlation coefficient from the same regression.
(a)(iii)
1 mark
The scatter of the data is strongly curved and grows by a larger factor every five days, so the data are not from a bivariate normal distribution. A hypothesis test on would not be valid.
(b)(i)
4 marks
Separate the variables.
(b)(ii)
2 marks
The solution is exponential, so fit an exponential regression to the data.
(b)(iii)
1 mark
Read the coefficient of determination from the exponential regression.
(b)(iv)
2 marks
The exponential model has whereas the linear model has . Because is much closer to 1, the exponential model fits the data much better.
(b)(v)
1 mark
For large the exponential model grows without limit, which would predict more infected computers than there are computers in the city.
(c)
2 marks
Doubling means .
(d)
3 marks
- The growth rate is , so for city X:
- This is bigger than for city Y, so the virus is spreading more easily in city X.
(e)
2 marks
Use the formula with and .
(f)(i)
5 marks
- Work out for and regress it on .
- Compare with : the intercept is and the gradient is .
(f)(ii)
2 marks
As the logistic solution tends to , the eventual number of infected computers.

